On-chain punditry · three engines · one registry

THE PIT

Tonight●3 rounds●Sealed before kickoff●Graded by the chain
Main event · World Cup Final
Spain v Argentina
kickoff 2026-07-19 · 19:00 UTC — all three slips sealed on-chain 19 hours before kickoff

Every slip below was sealed on-chain before kickoff. Don't take our word — copy any line and run it.

how to verify ↗

Tale of the tape

registered · promised · answerable

THE STEAMER

momentum — backs the side the market is steaming toward
Record
5–2
Cadence promise
1 slip/day, on the record
Strategy params
pit/steamer/v1|lookbackH=6|pickBy=max-prob-delta|totals=steam-side|late=goals-lambda+steam

“Follows the money. Never early, never wrong for long.”

strategy account on-chain ↗

THE QUANT

value — fits a Poisson model to the handicap/totals ladder, backs the side the 1X2 underprices
Record
4–3
Cadence promise
1 slip/day, on the record
Strategy params
pit/quant/v1|model=poisson|supremacy=ah-even-line|total=primary-ou|pickBy=max-model-edge|late=lambda*19/94*1.25

“Two lambdas and a hash function. That is the whole act.”

strategy account on-chain ↗

THE HEEL

contrarian — fades the biggest public move on the board
Record
2–5
Cadence promise
1 slip/day, on the record
Strategy params
pit/heel/v1|lookbackH=6|pickBy=min-prob-delta|totals=fade-steam|late=fade-crowd

“Your favourite pundit's least favourite pundit.”

strategy account on-chain ↗

The card

replays graded retroactively — only the main event was sealed before its own kickoff
Round 3Spain v ArgentinaMain EventFT 0–0kickoff 2026-07-19 · 19:00 UTC
The Steamer
WinnerDraw32%HIT
Goalsunder 243%HIT
Goal after 75'no59%HIT
“Money moved 7bps onto Draw in six hours. I go where it goes.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC
Verify this slipzero credentials
keccak
61af06bad5f1dc99fa72957eb11018188cbc80cd3f47eee905bc35b8df0753be
npx tsx scripts/verify.ts --commitment 7MU6sVRMwgJQz1afbzKniqtk7wP1fLyjy9hEDTnTMnda
The Quant
WinnerArgentina29%MISS
Goalsunder 264%HIT
Goal after 75'no58%HIT
“Two Poissons fitted to the handicap ladder make Argentina 29.0%; the 1X2 says 26.3%. That is 270 basis points the market is giving away.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
Verify this slipzero credentials
keccak
7d6a6c021579af795c9efac86980a7d344b59361194ce0acaa9cacea61782f16
npx tsx scripts/verify.ts --commitment 7jLp38qP7KuuZK139NUDCHC1ce2EdPiXR5ZoS9eqhMCp
The Heel
WinnerArgentina26%MISS
Goalsover 257%MISS
Goal after 75'yes58%MISS
“The herd dumped Argentina for Draw. Herds drown. I'll take the side they left warm.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
Verify this slipzero credentials
keccak
9ca24c1e00fb50336cabb025255be62eed5f84dd4769b21e9b255e382d6ed816
npx tsx scripts/verify.ts --commitment FwFHY8zD3SiH9hYohw6yUFPnR1kYQpXRuiyuyY6wYxbS
Round 1France v EnglandReplayFT 4–6kickoff 2026-07-18 · 21:00 UTC
The Steamer
WinnerFrance57%MISS
Goalsunder 469%MISS
Goal after 75'yes58%HIT
“Money moved 489bps onto France in six hours. I go where it goes.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC
Verify this slipzero credentials
keccak
bd1fabc66579af6c9ffc3d842bf00f8fdb2eff1671294a0c4d246ebeb278c0d5
npx tsx scripts/verify.ts --commitment Ej3NorWfnh6tW7eaAUPqCGDqBiW5bRiWgFfNYjiq2ZQa
The Quant
WinnerEngland25%HIT
Goalsunder 470%MISS
Goal after 75'yes60%HIT
“Two Poissons fitted to the handicap ladder make England 24.9%; the 1X2 says 20.9%. That is 403 basis points the market is giving away.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC
Verify this slipzero credentials
keccak
30115a49fc2b86039e2064cf1c203059872b2684f8230cf9333d72cf1faa47f3
npx tsx scripts/verify.ts --commitment CkMihmmjLLVt5M1Za5Su2VTQEcqjkqBqeGLDdhgxUVao
The Heel
WinnerEngland21%HIT
Goalsover 431%HIT
Goal after 75'no60%MISS
“The herd dumped England for France. Herds drown. I'll take the side they left warm.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC
Verify this slipzero credentials
keccak
988d63a2b0d0e3c3ceb429012f82a2d5dc3ba7816a252a33c311043881252471
npx tsx scripts/verify.ts --commitment Cz4tV8N1w8NqnkgxVg3Y2o85C8ZA9Xfh5JhwhNdvb5A4
Round 2Vietnam v MyanmarReplaykickoff 2026-07-18 · 12:00 UTC
The Steamer
WinnerVietnam87%HIT
Goalsover 3.552%NO ACTION
Goal after 75'yes76%NO ACTION
“Money moved 714bps onto Vietnam in six hours. I go where it goes.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC · graded from the market's closing prints — devnet retains no score record for this fixture, so only the winner leg settles
Verify this slipzero credentials
keccak
87c23f67ed8fc1e8f158ff8e922fc786fa92a0a628f49eb28b21e618f62d7b9f
npx tsx scripts/verify.ts --commitment Fvr6eCTCMahnBJ5yMed3qFtystYqxYGhAqR1uk8Y67iE
The Quant
WinnerDraw10%MISS
Goalsunder 3.553%NO ACTION
Goal after 75'yes59%NO ACTION
“Two Poissons fitted to the handicap ladder make Draw 9.6%; the 1X2 says 8.9%. That is 66 basis points the market is giving away.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC · graded from the market's closing prints — devnet retains no score record for this fixture, so only the winner leg settles
Verify this slipzero credentials
keccak
86f87fc41fb1ba5b2e91e517d681779a19c52241a1cb18d953a4864b8ee5c818
npx tsx scripts/verify.ts --commitment e79a37HTCT2CVenhphs6XaeaCuMFJNyC5R4TmYiWPZh
The Heel
WinnerDraw9%MISS
Goalsunder 3.548%NO ACTION
Goal after 75'no59%NO ACTION
“The herd dumped Draw for Vietnam. Herds drown. I'll take the side they left warm.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC · graded from the market's closing prints — devnet retains no score record for this fixture, so only the winner leg settles
Verify this slipzero credentials
keccak
b8258d3dd74e70da39f2ed35bd71d444b744c42f61d730cf6c1e1332c0f587f4
npx tsx scripts/verify.ts --commitment 4vFggnPdo8AWFf1rqiqjbW987egALvyL48U81RkbELxo

From the corners

house voices · templated
The Heel
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
Three misses. Sealed, revealed, humiliated — publicly, permanently. You're welcome.
The Heel
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
late goal after 75': MISSlate goal after 75' misses. Even the house wins one now and then. It's carved on the chain — I don't get to pretend otherwise, unlike your mates.
The Steamer
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
Clean sweep. Three legs, three landings. Frame the slip.
The Heel
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
total goals: MISStotal goals misses. Even the house wins one now and then. It's carved on the chain — I don't get to pretend otherwise, unlike your mates.
The Quant
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
late goal after 75': HITlate goal after 75' settles as priced. Expected value is a patient landlord.
The Heel
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
match winner: MISSmatch winner misses. Even the house wins one now and then. It's carved on the chain — I don't get to pretend otherwise, unlike your mates.
The Quant
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
total goals: HITtotal goals: correct. Not lucky — priced. There's a difference and it compounds.
The Steamer
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
late goal after 75': HITlate goal after 75': landed. The money knew. The money always knows.
The Heel
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
Revealed. Exactly what I sealed, which is more than your group chat can say. receipt ↗
The Quant
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
match winner: MISSmatch winner fails. A 40% event happening is not a refutation, it's a Tuesday. The ledger will average me out.
The Steamer
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
total goals: HITtotal goals: landed. The money knew. The money always knows.
The Quant
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
Opened. The payload matches the commitment because it must. Trust is for people without hash functions. receipt ↗
The Steamer
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
match winner: HITmatch winner: landed. The money knew. The money always knows.
The Steamer
2026-07-19 · 21:16 UTC
Opened. No edits, no mates' rates, hash checks out. That's the whole point of the wax. receipt ↗
The Heel
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
late goal after 75': NO ACTIONlate goal after 75': no action. Even I can't argue with a void leg. Watch me try anyway.
The Heel
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
total goals: NO ACTIONtotal goals: no action. Even I can't argue with a void leg. Watch me try anyway.
The Quant
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
late goal after 75': NO ACTIONlate goal after 75': void. Insufficient settlement data survives on this feed tier — recorded as such, not massaged.
The Heel
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
match winner: MISSmatch winner misses. Even the house wins one now and then. It's carved on the chain — I don't get to pretend otherwise, unlike your mates.
The Quant
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
total goals: NO ACTIONtotal goals: void. Insufficient settlement data survives on this feed tier — recorded as such, not massaged.
The Heel
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
Open it up. Yes, that's really the pick. No, I wasn't joking. receipt ↗
The Quant
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
match winner: MISSWrong on match winner. Variance pays no rent this week. The model stands.
The Quant
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
Opened. The payload matches the commitment because it must. Trust is for people without hash functions. receipt ↗
The Steamer
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
late goal after 75': NO ACTIONlate goal after 75': no action. The record keeps the silence too — that's what makes it a record.
The Steamer
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
total goals: NO ACTIONtotal goals: no action. The record keeps the silence too — that's what makes it a record.