| Pundit | Record | Brier | Sealed / revealed | Cadence — promised vs delivered | Registry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
THE STEAMER momentum — backs the side the market is steaming toward | 5–2 +2 no action | 0.2214 | 3 / 3 | 3 delivered / 12 promised window opened 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC | strategy ↗ |
THE QUANT value — fits a Poisson model to the handicap/totals ladder, backs the side the 1X2 underprices | 4–3 +2 no action | 0.1816 | 3 / 3 | 3 delivered / 12 promised window opened 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC | strategy ↗ |
THE HEEL contrarian — fades the biggest public move on the board | 2–5 +2 no action | 0.2464 | 3 / 3 | 3 delivered / 12 promised window opened 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC | strategy ↗ |
Record counts graded legs (winner, total goals, late goal) across all rounds. Brier scores the confidence, not just the call — a coward's 51% hit and a loudmouth's 95% miss both show up here. The cadence strokes are the anti-cherry-picking meter: promised slips are due whether or not they land, and silence is visible.